Forecast for peak infections in the second wave of the Omicron after the adjustment of zero-COVID policy in the mainland of China.

On December 7, 2022, the Chinese government optimized the current epidemic prevention and control policy, and no longer adopted the zero-COVID policy and mandatory quarantine measures. Based on the above policy changes, this paper establishes a compartment dynamics model considering age distribution, home isolation and vaccinations. Parameter estimation was performed using improved least squares and Nelder-Mead simplex algorithms combined with modified case data. Then, using the estimated parameter values to predict a second wave of the outbreak, the peak of severe cases will reach on 8 May 2023, the number of severe cases will reach 206,000. Next, it is proposed that with the extension of the effective time of antibodies obtained after infection, the peak of severe cases in the second wave of the epidemic will be delayed, and the final scale of the disease will be reduced. When the effectiveness of antibodies is 6 months, the severe cases of the second wave will peak on July 5, 2023, the number of severe cases is 194,000. Finally, the importance of vaccination rates is demonstrated, when the vaccination rate of susceptible people under 60 years old reaches 98%, and the vaccination rate of susceptible people over 60 years old reaches 96%, the peak of severe cases in the second wave of the epidemic will be reached on 13 July 2023, when the number of severe cases is 166,000.

Quantitative evaluation of the role of Fangcang shelter hospitals in the control of Omicron transmission: A case study of the outbreak in Shanghai, China in 2022.

Since Omicron began to spread in China, Shanghai has become one of the cities with more severe outbreaks. Under the comprehensive consideration of the vaccine coverage rate, the number of Fangcang shelter hospital beds and the number of designated hospital beds in Shanghai, this paper established a deterministic compartmental model and used the Nelder-Mead Simplex Direct Search Algorithm and chi-square values to estimate the model parameters. we calculate ℛ0 = 3.6429 when the number of beds in the Fangcang shelter hospital is relatively tight in the second stage and ℛ0 = 0.4974 in the fifth stage when there are enough beds in both Fangcang shelter hospital and designated hospital. Then we perform a sensitivity analysis on ℛ0 by using perturbation of fixed point estimation of model parameters in the fifth stage, and obtain three parameters that are more sensitive to ℛ0, which are transmission rate (ß 1d ), proportion of the infectious (η) and the hospitalization rate of asymptomatic infected cases (δ 1). Through simulation, we obtain that if the hospitalization rate of asymptomatic infections δ 2 > 0.9373 or the transmission rate ß 1b  < 0.0467, the second stage of Omicron transmission in Shanghai can be well controlled. Finally, we find the measure that converting the National Convention and Exhibition Center (NECC) into a Fangcang shelter hospital has played an important role in curbing the epidemic. Whether this temporary Fangcang shelter hospital is not built or delayed, the cumulative number of confirmed cases will both exceed 100,000, and the cumulative asymptomatic infections will both exceed 1 million. In addition, for a city of 10 million people, we obtain that if a permanent Fangcang shelter hospital with 17,784 beds is built ahead of epidemic, there will be no shortage of beds during the outbreak of Omicron. Our findings enrich the content of the impact of Fangcang shelter hospital beds on the spread of Omicron and confirm the correct policy adopted by the Chinese government.

Supply of basic necessities to vulnerable populations during the COVID-19 pandemic: Empirical evidence from Shanghai, China.

Background: In spite of initial widespread skepticism, city lockdown has been proved to be an effective short-term tool in containing and delaying the spread of a viral epidemic. The measures to ensure the supply of the basic necessities adequately and equitably, especially for those vulnerable ones has become a major challenge faced by all countries taking a city lockdown measure during the epidemic. Methods: Data was collected through relevant government documents, work records, policy reports, media reports and the online-work information platform designed by the research group. Based on these references, the study analyzed the mainly technical difficulties and the countermeasures of the supply process, and summarized the key characteristics of basic necessities supply strategy for vulnerable groups in Shanghai. Results: The supply strategy for vulnerable groups in Shanghai covers 16 districts, 232 streets and 6,028 neighborhood communities, which has already been in test running in April in some districts. The practical experience in Shanghai solved three key materials supply problems (lack of purchase channels, insufficient material reserves, insufficient transportation capacity) faced by government during the city lockdown, and showed three essential characteristics (overall coordination, community-centered intervention, technical support). Conclusions: The findings in this study may provide some suggestions to other countries about how to better manage the preparation, dispatch and transportation of basic necessities in shortage for those vulnerable ones during the city lockdown.

Pharmacological therapies and drug development targeting SARS-CoV-2 infection.

The development of therapies for SARS-CoV-2 infection, based on virus biology and pathology, and of large- and small-scale randomized controlled trials, have brought forward several antiviral and immunomodulatory drugs targeting the disease severity. Casirivimab/Imdevimab monoclonal antibodies and convalescent plasma to prevent virus entry, Remdesivir, Molnupiravir, and Paxlovid nucleotide analogs to prevent viral replication, a variety of repurposed JAK-STAT signaling pathway inhibitors, corticosteroids, and recombinant agonists/antagonists of cytokine and interferons have been found to provide clinical benefits in terms of mortality and hospitalization. However, current treatment options face multiple clinical needs, and therefore, in this review, we provide an update on the challenges of the existing therapeutics and highlight drug development strategies for COVID-19 therapy, based on ongoing clinical trials, meta-analyses, and clinical case reports.

Microneedle-Mediated Vaccination: Innovation and Translation.

Vaccine administration by subcutaneous or intramuscular injection is the most commonly prescribed route for inoculation, however, it is often associated with some deficiencies such as low compliance, high professionalism, and risk of infection. Therefore, the application of microneedles for vaccine delivery has gained widespread interests in the past few years due to its high compliance, minimal invasiveness, and convenience. This review focuses on recent advances in the development and application of microneedles for vaccination based on different delivery strategies, and introduces the current status of microneedle-mediated vaccination in clinical translation. The prospects for its application including opportunities and challenges are further discussed.

Self-compassion and the Mitigation of Negative Affect in the Era of Social Distancing.

OBJECTIVES: The outbreak of contagious diseases and their associated non-pharmaceutical interventions can lead to negative mental health consequences. This study aimed to investigate online self-compassion exercises' effectiveness in alleviating people's negative affect (anxiety and negative emotions) during the COVID-19 pandemic lockdown. METHODS: Study 1 examined the associations between self-compassion and negative affect using an anonymous online survey. In study 2, two pilot experiments were conducted to examine online self-compassion exercises' (i.e., instructor-guided meditation and self-guided writing) effectiveness to mitigate individuals' negative affect. In study 3, a randomized controlled study was conducted to further examine online self-compassion writing's effectiveness in reducing people's negative affect. RESULTS: The results of study 1 indicated a significant negative association between self-compassion and participants' negative affect. Participants in study 2a reported significant decreases in negative affect after completing the self-compassion meditation. Study 2b showed that participants who completed the self-compassion writing reported significantly more self-compassion and less anxiety when compared to participants who did not. Study 3 showed substantial pre/post-test changes in participants who completed self-compassion writing. Importantly, there were significant increases in participants' self-compassion and decreases in negative affect when compared to participants in the control condition. CONCLUSIONS: Self-compassion exercises were effective to alleviate individuals' anxiety and reduce negative emotions (even within a brief session) during the pandemic lockdown. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s12671-021-01674-w.

Achieving Universal Wearing of Face Masks During the COVID-19 Pandemic: A Practical Solution from Shanghai, China.

BACKGROUND: Face masks are basic protective equipment for preventing respiratory infectious diseases. The measures to properly dispose of and allocate face masks during the early stage of an epidemic caused by respiratory infectious diseases deserve worldwide attention. METHODS: A qualitative research approach was used to document the practice of a citywide face mask-wearing strategy of the Shanghai Municipal Government (called the "Shanghai solution" in this article). Based on data from government work documents, an online face mask-allocation and sales system was built to offer real-time updates of face-mask appointments and sales information in all designated pharmacies and neighborhood committees in Shanghai. RESULTS: In the Shanghai solution, a total of 24.8 million residents in 6,031 committees were covered, in order to achieve universal wearing of face masks during the COVID-19 crisis. Up to 110 million face masks were dispensed to residents in six rounds of face-mask allocation during February to April. This practical experience in Shanghai solved two key problems (insufficient face-mask capacity, protection of vulnerable population) with the supply of face masks by addressing four essential characteristics: overall coordination, on-demand distribution, efficient distribution, and technical support. CONCLUSION: The practice of the citywide face mask-supply strategy of Shanghai could provide several pointers for management of a shortage of emergency materials, dispatch, and transport to other countries during the pandemic.